The euro is trading around 1.1875 below the 21 SMA and retreating after three attempts to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1920.

Yesterday, during the US session, we saw a sharp fall in the euro, reaching a low of 1.1837. Since then, there has been a technical rebound, but EUR/USD could struggle to recover some of its losses and is expected to resume its downward cycle.

A break above the 50% Fibonacci level could push the euro to reach 61.8%, which in turn coincides with the 6/8 Murray, representing strong resistance for the euro around 1.1962. If bullish momentum is maintained, EUR/USD could reach the psychological 1.2000 level.

If the euro struggles to continue rising above 61.8%, it could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions, with targets at the 4/8 Murray located at 1.1782 and finally at the 3/8 Murray around 1.1596.

If the euro fails to consolidate above the 21 SMA, it will be seen as a signal to sell from current price levels, with short-term targets around the 200 EMA located at 1.1789.