Weak US retail sales data have reignited concerns about the health of the economy and prompted investors to exit financial services stocks. That triggered a decline in the S&P 500, despite reassurances from optimists that this is merely a normal asset rotation.
Meanwhile, market activity is setting records: average daily trading volume in January reached $1.03 trillion — 50% higher than a year ago — and turnover in equities hit a record 19 billion shares per day. Despite the warning signal from weak December retail sales, UBS analysts still project the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 in June and 7,700 in December, betting on sustained economic growth and robust corporate profits. Follow the link for details.
Uncertainty dominates the stock market: earlier optimism around the AI sector has given way to anxiety. Investors fear that new technologies could displace entire industries and are selling stocks in financial and digital services companies. Major banks came under pressure as well. Shares of Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup fell by more than 2%, increasing volatility in the S&P 500.
Although the US labor market shows strength — employment rose, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% — that development worked against equities. Hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts have faded: the probability of easing in April fell from 42% to 22%. Such "good" news is now being read as negative — investors fear the rate-cutting cycle will be delayed and the market will be left without policy support. Follow the link for more details.
In January 2026, the US economy added 130k nonfarm jobs, roughly double consensus and several times December's print. The jump was the largest since late 2024 and stands in sharp contrast to downward revisions to 2025 data. The fresh numbers materially strengthened the dollar and reduced expectations of imminent Fed easing.
The effect was amplified by the Fed's pause in rate cuts and by the delayed publication of the report due to the partial government shutdown. The January release came together with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual revisions and served as a significant macro signal against the prior slowdown shown by late?2025 indicators — weaker activity and falling vacancies. Follow the link for more details.
