Experts of the International Energy Agency reported that at the moment the world oil market is in a difficult situation, balancing between a shortage of supply and the likelihood of a recession. At the same time, rising prices and the general deterioration of the economic situation are already negatively affecting demand. The agency also noted that rarely have oil market forecasts been more uncertain. Moreover, the weakening of the macroeconomic outlook and the risks of recession worsen the mood in the market, which is already suffering from a shortage of supply. According to the monthly report of the IEA, less active growth in oil demand in developed countries and steady supply from Russia make it possible to slightly ease the shortage in the market. At the same time, the forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2022 has been lowered by only 200 thousand barrels per day (up to 1.7 million barrels per day), and in 2023 – up to 2.1 million barrels per day. Global oil demand in 2023 is expected to reach 101.3 million barrels per day, with developing countries leading the increase in demand. It is noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will not be able to actively increase oil production due to limited reserve capacities. The IEA also notes that although Russian oil exports have fallen to lows since August 2021, Russia's oil revenues jumped by $700 million compared to the previous month due to rising oil prices.
