Bank of America analysts have improved the forecast of global economic growth in 2023 to 2.5%. The previous forecast in December assumed growth to only 2.2%. In 2024, experts predict a rise in the global economy by about 3%. This trend is due to expectations of a rapid economic recovery in China, a delayed recession in the United States and the likelihood that Europe will avoid an economic downturn. An additional positive impact is provided by improvements in supply chains, a relatively mild reaction of markets to aggressive rate hikes by central banks and the absence of new serious geopolitical shocks. In particular, analysts expect China's GDP growth to accelerate to 5.5% this year. And this will lead to an increase in global demand for oil and LNG: many believe that China will provide half of the projected growth in oil demand this year (according to the latest data, this figure is estimated at 1.87 million b/d). In addition, economists postponed the beginning of the recession in the United States to the second quarter, and in total it will last three quarters. According to their forecasts, the country's GDP will increase by 0.7% this year, and by 0.3% in 2024. As for Europe, the European economy is expected to show an increase of 0.4% in 2023 and 0.9% next year. That is, most likely, Europe will be able to avoid an economic downturn in the next couple of years.
