Monday, June 13 As a rule, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty on Mondays, but this time you should pay attention to the data on industrial production in the UK. Moreover, its growth of 0.7% should be replaced by a decline of 0.9%. As a result, the pound sterling will inevitably come under pressure, since such a sharp deterioration in the industrial situation means a deterioration in the overall economic situation in the country. Tuesday, June 14 On Tuesday, the UK publishes data on the labor market, but they are unlikely to affect the dynamics of the pound, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 3.9%. Also, data on producer prices in the United States may remain without attention, since the indicator will most likely not change in any way. Thus, Tuesday will turn out to be an even quieter day than Monday, which happens quite rarely. Wednesday, June 15 On Wednesday, statistics on industrial production are published already in the eurozone, and the situation here is somewhat better than in Britain, as a slowdown in the rate of decline from -0.8% to -0.6% is expected. However, this is still a recession, so the strengthening of the euro will be extremely insignificant. But after the opening of the American session, the growth of the single European currency may accelerate. At the same time, not only the euro will grow, but also all currencies, since the US dollar will be under pressure. In particular, due to the fact that the growth rate of retail sales in the United States should slow down from 8.2% to 7.1%. And this is a fairly significant decrease, which will lead to a noticeable weakening of the US currency. However, the decline in the dollar will not be long, as the meeting of the Board of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations will end the trading session. And apparently, the Fed will raise the refinancing rate from 1.0% to 1.5%. In addition, the regulator will probably hint at further tightening of monetary policy, which will lead to a resumption of the trend for the strengthening of the dollar. Thursday, June 16 Thursday starts with data on the labor market in Australia, where the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. So the Australian dollar will surely lose its positions. But the pound sterling will receive good support and will be able to demonstrate strong growth. The reason for this will be an increase in the Bank of England refinancing rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. The growth of the pound will also be supported by statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, since this time it is extremely pessimistic. So, the number of initial appeals should grow by 11 thousand, and repeated ones – by 6 thousand. Friday, June 17 A meeting of the Board of the Bank of Japan will be held on Friday, but it is likely to be ignored, since the Japanese regulator should leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. In principle, the Japanese central bank has not changed its PREP for many years, and the market has long been used to it. Closer to the end of the trading week, the dollar will be under a little pressure. The driver of the decline will be data on industrial production, the growth rate of which may slow down from 6.4% to 4.9%.
