Monday, October 10
Monday will be accompanied by a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. No data is published at all. However, it is worth considering the strongest escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused by the undermining of the Crimean Bridge and the bombing of Ukrainian cities.
Investors should assess the situation and the reaction of the parties, since we are talking about the further development of the conflict, which clearly does not bode well for the entire European continent. So the development of events in the foreign exchange market will depend largely on the headlines in the media.
Tuesday, October 11
The only thing worth paying attention to on Tuesday is the data on the UK labor market. It is expected that the unemployment rate should remain unchanged, and employment may grow by only 12 thousand. So it will continue to remain at the current level for some time. And if these forecasts are confirmed, then no market reaction will follow.
Wednesday, October 12
Data on industrial production in the UK and the eurozone will be published on Wednesday. They will certainly provide significant support to the pound and the single European currency. The fact is that the decline in industrial production by 2.4% will be replaced by an increase of 0.7%. Moreover, the growth rate of industrial production itself should accelerate from 1.1% to 1.3%.
At the same time, the United States will publish data on producer prices, the growth rate of which may slow from 8.7% to 8.4%, which indicates the prospect of a further decline in inflation. And this will put additional pressure on the dollar.
Thursday, October 13
The main event of the whole week will be the publication of inflation data in the United States, which will take place on Thursday. According to forecasts, inflation may slow down from 8.3% to 8.2%, which will be the third consecutive decline in consumer price growth. And this means that the Federal Reserve System has more and more reasons to reduce the rate of interest rate growth. Which will put pressure on the US dollar.
And against this background, statistics on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are likely to go unnoticed.
Friday, October 14
On Friday, the dollar will continue to lose its positions – already due to a slowdown in retail sales growth from 9.1% to 8.0%. This may indicate that, despite the decrease in inflationary pressure, consumer activity is also declining. And as you know, it is she who is the main factor in America's economic growth.
Thus, there will be signals on the market again that the American economy is slipping into recession.
