Monday, November 7 The beginning of the week will be accompanied by a weakening of the US dollar, which is under pressure from the unpredictability of the results of the midterm elections in the United States. The fact is that if the Republicans win, then the White House may have problems promoting some economic solutions. And in conditions of economic crisis and sliding into recession, this can lead to a deterioration of the situation in the country, especially in the labor market. And while the results of the congressional elections are unknown, political uncertainty will put noticeable pressure on the dollar. Tuesday, November 8 For the same reason, data on retail sales in the eurozone, published on Tuesday, will be ignored. Although the rate of their decline should slow down from -2.0% to -1.5%. Nevertheless, investors will be more concerned about the results of exit pools in the United States than about consumer activity in Europe. Wednesday, November 9 On Wednesday, the preliminary results of the midterm elections will already be known, which usually do not change at the time of the announcement of the official results (which happens only a couple of weeks after the vote). So the market will be completely absorbed in working out these very results, not paying attention to anything else. In addition, there is not much to look at on Wednesday, since the macroeconomic calendar is virtually empty. Thursday, November 10 On Thursday, statistics on inflation in the United States will be published. Analysts expect that the growth rate of consumer prices may decrease from 8.2% to 8.1%. Which will be the fourth consecutive slowdown in inflation. The decline in inflation will calm the markets somewhat, as the Federal Reserve System has more and more reasons to slow down the pace of interest rate growth. Moreover, some experts believe that the Fed may think about the timing of the first rate cut. And all this will put pressure on the dollar, regardless of the results of the midterm elections. Friday, November 11 The only thing worth paying attention to on Friday is the preliminary estimate of UK GDP in the third quarter, which should show a slowdown in economic growth from 4.4% to 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, the British economy should shrink by 0.4%. This will allow the US dollar to somewhat recoup the losses it will suffer after the publication of inflation data. In addition, the dollar will be able to strengthen its position slightly due to a slowdown in the growth of industrial production in Europe from 2.5% to 1.7%.
