Monday, November 14 The beginning of the trading week will be accompanied by the strengthening of the single European currency. The growth driver will be data on industrial production in the eurozone, the growth rate of which unexpectedly accelerated from 2.8% to 4.9%. Otherwise, the macroeconomic calendar is empty. However, the euro can pull the pound sterling along with it, so Monday will be the day of growth of European currencies. Tuesday, November 15 However, on Tuesday we will be able to observe a correction in the market, which will begin with the opening of the Asian session. Japan will present GDP data in the third quarter, and they should show a slowdown in economic growth from 3.5% to 1.2%. Data on unemployment in the UK, which may rise from 3.5% to 3.6%, will strengthen the correction process. But the eurozone GDP data may be ignored, as a second estimate will be published, which will probably coincide with the first one already taken into account by the market. In the USA, attention should be paid to the publication of statistics on the producer price index in October. Wednesday, November 16 Wednesday will start with UK inflation data: the growth rate of consumer prices in the country should accelerate from 10.1% to 11.0%. Consequently, the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates at the same pace. Inflation may rise in Canada, too, only from 6.9% to 7.0%. So the Bank of Canada will continue to raise the refinancing rate. But the US Federal Reserve System is likely to start reducing the rate of interest rate growth in the near future. Moreover, retail sales growth is expected to slow down in the States from 8.2% to 6.9%. And this indicates a decrease in consumer activity, which is the main engine of economic growth. Thursday, November 17 On Thursday, the final data on inflation in the eurozone will be published, but they are unlikely to affect investor sentiment, as they will only confirm the preliminary estimate that showed an increase in inflation from 9.9% to 10.7%. Therefore, the only thing that will be of interest on Thursday is data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. It is expected that the number of repeated applications should increase somewhat, which will indicate a gradual deterioration of the labor market. And this is an extremely negative factor for the dollar. Friday, November 18 On Friday, the US dollar will continue to lose its position, largely due to inflation in Japan, where it should accelerate from 3.0% to 3.2%. Rising inflation is likely to force the Bank of Japan to finally think about raising the refinancing rate – for the first time since 2007. And such a change in the long-term trend will be perceived by the market extremely positively, which will lead to a steady increase in the Japanese yen at the end of the week. This, in turn, will pull up other currencies. In addition, retail sales are expected to slow down in the UK from 6.9% to 5.6%, which will also not contribute to the growth of the US currency.
