Monday, December 5 Usually on Mondays, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, but this time the beginning of the week will be rich in publications. The day will start with the final data on business activity indices, which, however, should confirm the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. In addition, data on retail sales in the eurozone will be of great interest, the rate of decline of which should accelerate from -0.6% to -2.2%. And this, most likely, will be the reason for a reversal in the direction of strengthening the US currency. Tuesday, December 6 But on Tuesday, the economic calendar is completely empty, almost as well as on all subsequent days – there are quite a few macrostatistics published this week. Therefore, investors will have the opportunity to calmly prepare for the upcoming board meetings of the largest central banks in December. Wednesday, December 7 Although statistics on eurozone GDP are published on Wednesday, it will not affect the mood of market participants in any way, since only the third estimate will be presented, which most likely will not differ from the first two. But the data on Australia's GDP will cause much more interest, since the final statistics are already being published. Moreover, it should show an acceleration in economic growth from 3.6% to 6.4%. And such an impressive growth, especially in the current realities, will clearly give the Australian dollar enough strength to strengthen further. The Canadian dollar will also be able to strengthen its position on Wednesday, as the Bank of Canada is likely to raise the refinancing rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, which will provide significant support to the Canadian currency. Thursday, December 8 The only thing worth paying attention to on Thursday is the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. It is expected that the number of repeat applications will increase again (for the ninth week in a row), which clearly indicates the ongoing problems in the American labor market. And this will put some pressure on the US dollar and contribute to its weakening. Friday, December 9 On Friday, the data on producer prices in the United States will be of the greatest interest. Their growth rates may slow down from 6.7% to 6.1%, which means a further decline in inflation. And this will finally convince investors that during its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve will raise the refinancing rate by only fifty basis points, and not by seventy-five, as previously assumed. Such a reassessment of expectations will lead to an even greater weakening of the dollar at the end of the trading week.
