Last night, the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published. It can be concluded from the document that the heads of the regulator did not come to a consensus on further steps in monetary policy. Some experts believe that an interest rate hike next month may be necessary, but others point to uncertainty and high risks. As you know, inflation risks are a key factor determining the Fed's future policy. And since the process of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target is still too slow, a number of representatives of the central bank see the need for further rate increases. At the same time, provided that the American economy develops in accordance with economists' expectations, further tightening of monetary policy may not be necessary. In general, almost all participants of the meeting agreed that the risks of slowing economic growth and increasing unemployment have increased due to problems in the banking sector. In addition, FOMC members expressed general uncertainty about the appropriateness of a serious rate hike in the future and stressed the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain room for maneuver after the May meeting. The next FOMC meeting will be held on June 13-14. Currently, market participants estimate the chances of the Fed raising the rate by 25 basis points in June at 30%, and by the end of July – at 55%.
