For the European economy, the risks associated with the upcoming US elections on November 5 outweigh the potential advantages. Although the victory of Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's successor, may bring minor advantages in trade and defense, experts fear the return of Donald Trump to power. «Trump 2.0 is fraught with many dangers», analysts say. If Trump wins, European leaders will face many serious problems. Trump's refusal to support Ukraine may force European countries to sharply increase military spending, and a new trade war with China will cause irreparable damage to European manufacturers. The anti-Chinese rhetoric uniting both parties is particularly alarming. The export-oriented European economy will be in a difficult position trying to balance relations with the United States and China. The Dutch company ASML, a supplier of equipment for the production of microchips, has already faced export bans to China on the initiative of the United States. Experts warn that such restrictions may spread to other industries, further worsening the situation for European businesses. Half of Europe's output is accounted for by trade, which is twice as much as in the United States. 30 million manufacturing jobs in the region make Europe particularly vulnerable to any restrictions on trade.
