Analysts at Goldman Sachs bank believe that in the current conditions, the stock market has more opportunities to fall, despite the recent sell-off. Now the valuation of securities is made taking into account a modest recession, however, with the rate increase and tightening of the US Federal Reserve policy, the estimates may be revised downward. Experts note: «Profit margins in different markets are still high, and some normalization may lead to a downward revision of revenues.» They also do not exclude that macroeconomic constraints may lead to negative results in the second half of the year. Although cyclically adjusted valuations (S&P 500 Shiller P/E) will remain relatively high, especially in the long term. And despite the fact that the S&P 500 index has already fallen by about 21% in the first half of the year, Goldman experts estimated that the index could reach 3,600 points in the event of a recession. Today, experts see a 30% probability of a recession in the United States next year and about 50% over the next 2 years. But few expect the recession to be deep or prolonged. Goldman also noted that if bond yields do not start to decline, stock prices may fall even further. The fact is that in this case, investors will no longer choose between stocks and bonds with ultra-low rates.
