Monday, August 15 On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty again. Attention should be paid only to data from China, in particular, the volume of industrial production. For the rest, a quiet day will give investors the opportunity to prepare for a fairly busy week. Tuesday, August 16 Tuesday starts with the publication of data on the labor market in the UK, which is likely to have little impact, as the unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 3.8%. But in Canada, inflation is expected to decrease from 8.1% to 7.6%. And by analogy with the recently published similar data on the United States, this will lead to a weakening of the Canadian dollar. However, it will be short-lived, since almost immediately the US dollar will be under pressure, since the growth rate of industrial production in the United States should slow down from 4.2% to 4.0%. And this may further convince investors that the American economy is slipping into a protracted recession. Wednesday, August 17 A meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be held on Wednesday, following which the refinancing rate should be increased from 2.5% to 3.0%. Such actions of the regulator will support the New Zealand dollar and it will be able to strengthen its position. After that, the pound sterling will already grow. The fact is that inflation in the UK may accelerate from 9.4% to 9.9%, which will indicate a high probability of a stronger increase in interest rates by the Bank of England. This is followed by the publication of the second estimate of eurozone GDP, but it will not affect the market in any way, as it should coincide with the first estimate already taken into account by the markets. By the end of the day, the US dollar will continue to weaken, as retail sales data may show a slowdown in their growth rate from 8.4% to 8.1%. And despite the fact that the growth rate is still high, the very trend of slowing sales will be another confirmation of the coming recession. Thursday, August 18 Thursday will start with data on the labor market in Australia, which will put pressure on the Australian dollar. The fact is that the unemployment rate in the country should rise from 3.5% to 3.6%. But the growth of inflation in Europe (from 8.6% to 8.9%) will be ignored, since we are talking about the final data, which will only confirm the preliminary estimate. Similarly, data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will not affect the market in any way. According to forecasts, the changes will be rather symbolic. Friday, August 19 At the end of the week, the Japanese yen will be under pressure due to a slowdown in inflation from 2.4% to 2.2%. Such a trend may finally convince the market that it is not worth waiting for an increase in the refinancing rate of the Bank of Japan in the foreseeable future. The British pound, on the contrary, will be able to show a slight increase, as the rate of decline in retail sales in the UK may slow down from -5.8% to -3.7%. But in Canada, the situation is reversed. And although in this case we are dealing with sales growth, the fact that its pace is slowing from 14.1% to 9.0% will force investors to reduce their positions.
