Monday, January 30 The macroeconomic calendar at the beginning of the week is again almost completely empty, but this is even for the best, since there will be little to distract market participants from preparing for the upcoming meetings of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations and the European Central Bank. The only thing you can pay attention to on Monday is German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022. Analysts predict that the German economy grew by 0% on a quarterly basis, and by 0.8% on an annual basis. Tuesday, January 31 Tuesday will begin with the publication of statistics on Japan, the most significant of which is the unemployment rate. However, it should remain unchanged, and is unlikely to affect the dynamics of the yen. The same cannot be said about retail sales, the growth rate of which is likely to slow down from 2.6% to 2.4%, which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. You should also pay attention to the preliminary estimate of eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter. According to forecasts, the pace of economic growth may slow down from 2.5% to 1.6%. The slowdown in economic growth will almost certainly have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the European currency, and it, in turn, will pull other currencies along with it. In Canada, GDP data is also being published – a noticeable slowdown in economic growth is also expected there. Which will increase the pressure on the Canadian dollar. So the US dollar will be able to demonstrate strong growth. Wednesday, February 1 On Wednesday, preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone are published, which may well fall from 9.2% to 8.7%. And this means that the ECB will have even more reasons to end the cycle of raising interest rates, which will almost certainly have a negative impact on the single European currency. But the main event of Wednesday will be a meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations. Market participants are confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise the refinancing rate from 4.50% to 4.75%. The market has been ready for this for a long time, so the following comments from the Federal Reserve System will arouse the greatest interest. If the regulator hints at the possible beginning of a reduction in the refinancing rate before the end of this year, the dollar will instantly begin to fall in price, and quite seriously. If nothing of the kind happens, then the US currency may begin a rather long strengthening cycle. Thursday, February 2 Meetings of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will be held on Thursday. In both cases, the refinancing rate should be raised by 50 basis points. This is somewhat more than in the United States, which is why both the pound and the euro will receive some support. All the attention of the markets will be focused on the subsequent speeches of the heads of regulators, who will have to put everything in its place and determine the course of events for the next month. Friday, February 3 The week will end with the publication of a report by the United States Department of Labor, the content of which may make some adjustments to the overall dynamics of the market. The fact is that the unemployment rate in the United States may rise from 3.5% to 3.6%. And this will be an unambiguous signal that the situation in the American labor market is beginning to gradually deteriorate, which is why the dollar will weaken somewhat. Also on Friday, it will become clear how the results of the meetings of the monetary authorities affected the exchange rates, and whether this decline in the dollar will be local or will strengthen the general trend towards the weakening of the US currency.
